My prayers go out to all the souls lost in Egypt and their surviving loved ones who have to go on without them ...
How i See it ......................
When i first heard of the events in Tunis, i was doubtful of the outcome... BUT THEY SUCCEEDED ....soon Egyptian caught sight of the possibilities, and the pent up anger erupted, so they took to the streets..
To me, Egypt was the Rubicon, the point of no return, the one domino that could fell them all .. there would be changes, definitely not full fledged Democracy, but changes none the less, throughout the Middle East & North African countries... there was HOPE ..
I'm pretty sure all the leaders were monitoring progress in Egypt, some immediately introduced minute changes by sacking and replacing senior government members, some distributed sums of money in the form of monthly aid, others agreed to continue subsidies of goods, all short term changes.. and all of them were still waiting the final outcome in Egypt..
While we were watching NEWS channels, reading newspapers & following blogs and Tweets from Egypt .. WE MISSED OUT ON THE BIGGER PICTURE.... which is .. WHO WAS ACTUALLY MANIPULATING WHOM there..
Protesters are still occupying Tahrir Square, and gatherings are still being held there, in reality i think they are exactly where the government wants them to be, corralled in an area very much manageable and under watchful eyes.
Businesses & Banks are slowly opening, life seems to be gradually going back to normal except for the protesters holding on to Tahrir Square.... unaware that as it currently stands, they may have won the battle ... But they have already lost the WAR ..(i hope to god i am wrong in this).
The interim government is now run by Vice President and former head of intelligence, General Omar Suleiman, a close ally of the US & Israel and the heir apparent to the Egyptian Presidency.. He will sit down with the opposition, he will promise political & economic reform, he may even introduce financial incentives.... all in the name of change.. whereas actually to cause a rift in the Pro change movement... divide and conquer.. or make sure their momentum is lost.. and with at least 7 months to go before the elections.. he will have placed himself as a front runner in the horse race....
WHY Would i say that... SIMPLE..
Hosni Mubarak may be staying on as an honorary role, his presence has ensured that the essence and structure of the ruling party remains after departing, even if changes are introduced...which i am guessing may not be significant enough.. and come election day...
it will be Business as Usual in Egypt but under New Management,
just as the US & Israel want it...
I so do hope & Pray i am Wrong .. This movement should & must not fade... all our futures depend upon its success ..
Prologue
By now everyone is aware of events in Egypt, it's on all the NEWS channels ..
Briefly:
regime change was triggered by Events in Tunis, but for Egyptians, 25th of Jan 2011 signified their stance against oppression.
Brave men, women and children gathered in Tahrir Square .. THEIR DEMAND.. .. resignation of President Hosni Mubarak..
With aspirations that regime change would lead to an end to 'Emergency law'... Positive and progressing changes to the constitution, Free and fair elections..Freedom of Speech, basic human rights..
in days that ensued, the number of injured exceeded a thousand. The official fatality count just below 20 (last i read).. BUT .. protesters, and witnesses contradict this and have stated that the dead may run in the hundreds..
i believe the names of all the fallen Heroes of the Egyptian 25Jan Revolution are being registered on a site...
The event is best described by 'SandMonkey', a prominent Egyptian blogger.. who was also a member of the Pro regime change movement
The STANCE may have started off as a Leaderless revolution, going forward and to be taken serious, there must be a structure and an identifiable leadership .. to this effect 'Sandmonkey' shares his views and suggestions: http://www.sandmonkey.org/2011/02/06/the-way-forward/
Egypt, a significant ARAB nation & a KEY player in the MENA because of its close relationship with USA & Israel ...
Will their relationship Chang? I think not .. for an explanation read about the Closed door maneuvering by the Mubarak party and the foreign intervention as best described by Esam Al-Amin : http://www.informationclearinghouse.info/article27411.htm ,in his article titled 'Mubarak's last Grasp'. (do not miss reading his summary titled "Likely scenarios: remember Marcos?"
The Military made its position very clear by announcing No intervention... WHY?
Well, no revolution is successful without the backing of the military, they tip the balance of power in favor of the Victor.... by being present but only as observers.. The pro Mubarak generals pulled a fast one over the protesters, pretending to be Neutral but actually continuing to support the regime not Mubarak himself.....
The defining moment for the Pro change movement was Friday the 4th of February 2011, know as the 'Day of his (Hosni Mubarak's) Departure' ..
I was expecting a Peaceful march on to the Palace, but they continued to stay in Tahrir Square...
resulting in .. NOTHING ... some NDP cosmetic reshuffling .. BUT STILL NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE... and this is where i believe the protesters lost momentum ..
Why? The government called their bluff and someone Blinked...
